Concepts in Predictive Microbiology

One can surmise that few people spend much time during their normal day thinking about mathematical modeling. However, each day a wide range of activities and decisions that directly impact millions of individuals in this country are based on the results of models that were developed to describe and predict complex processes and events. Weather forecasts, mutual funds, airline schedules, and canned foods are just four of the myriad of examples of products and services that rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. In that context, it is not surprising that predictive food microbiology and the use of mathematical and computer modeling to describe and predict the behavior of foodborne microorganisms is playing an ever-increasing role in food microbiology. However, it is important to note that, while the term predictive microbiology is relatively new, the use of mathematical models has always been an integral part of food microbiology. For example, the entire thermal processing industry is based on a series of simple first-order kinetics models. Food engineers and microbiologists have successfully used concepts such as D-values and Z-values to produce safe foods for well over half a century.